Bo Bichette stepped up to bat in Washington on Tuesday night with a .224 batting average and a .609 OPS — numbers you'd expect from a player struggling to stay in the lineup, not from one of the Blue Jays' most reliable hitters. He hit two home runs, helping the Mets to a 9-6 victory, and created a statistical anomaly so rare it barely fits on the chart.
On May 19th, the average player hit about 0.133 home runs — roughly one every seven or eight games. Bichette hit two that night. This difference resulted in a z-score of 5.14. To put that in perspective, a z-score above 4.0 is already a rare event, happening only once every few seasons. Bichette's performance surpassed even that, making it a once-in-a-decade occurrence. His two-homer game wasn't just impressive for a Tuesday; it was an extraordinary feat rarely seen in baseball.
Here's where it gets tricky: the Statcast data from the game doesn't provide exit velocity or launch angle for each home run, so we can't fully analyze how they were hit. However, we do have Bichette's season-long contact stats. His hard-hit rate, which measures how often he hits the ball hard enough for good outcomes, is 28.6%, below the league average. Despite his struggles, his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which estimates his potential based on contact quality, is .360 — above the league average. The gap between his .360 xwOBA and .609 OPS remains unresolved.
Here's where it gets tricky: the Statcast data from the game doesn't provide exit velocity or launch angle for each home run, so we can't fully analyze how they were hit. However, we do have Bichette's season-long contact stats. His hard-hit rate, which measures how often he hits the ball hard enough for good outcomes, is 28.6%, below the league average. Despite his struggles, his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which estimates his potential based on contact quality, is .360 — above the league average. The gap between his .360 xwOBA and .609 OPS remains unresolved.
Before this game, Bichette had five home runs in 48 games, projecting to about 17 for the season, which is 30% below his usual pace. Over his career, he averages a home run every 6.8 games, but this season it was closer to one every nine or ten games. He's also adjusting to a new role, playing third base for the Mets after seven seasons as a shortstop in Toronto. Whether it's the position change, mechanical issues, or a slump, it's unclear why there's a gap between his career .290 average and this season's .224. His five home runs before this game didn't hint at the two he'd hit that night.
Keep an eye on Bichette's hard-hit rate over the next two weeks. If Tuesday's performance was a sign of real change — like an adjustment in his swing or better pitch recognition — his hard-hit rate should rise above 28.6%, and his xwOBA should start translating into a higher OPS. If those numbers don't improve, this game might just be an outlier. The key data point to watch: does he start hitting the ball harder against the pitches he likely connected with on Tuesday? Statcast will reveal this within a week of games, providing more insight than one standout box score.
A .609 OPS rarely leads to two-homer games. Tuesday's z-score puts it in once-in-a-decade territory. Whether it marks a real change in Bichette's swing or is just an extreme outlier, the next 15 plate appearances will tell the true story.